The World 2050, Teksty

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Global Economics
January 2011
The world in 2050
Quantifying the shift in the global economy
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic
shift. In this piece, we argue that this shift is set to continue. By 2050, the collective size of the
economies we currently deem 'emerging' will have increased five-fold and will be larger than
the developed world. And 19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world.
At the same time, there will be a marked decline in the economic might – and potentially the
political clout – of many small population, ageing, rich economies in Europe.
By Karen Ward
Disclosures and Disclaimer
This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst
certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
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The world in 2050

19 of the 30 largest economies will be emerging economies

The emerging economies will collectively be bigger than the
developed economies

Global growth will accelerate thanks to the contribution from the
emerging economies
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. But why is
this change occurring? Will it continue? And how will the world look if it does? The answers to these
questions are important for investors' decisions today.
In this piece, we provide a framework for thinking about these issues. Based on our analysis of the Top 30
economies ranked by size of GDP in 2050, our conclusions are as follows:

World output will treble, as growth accelerates on the back of the emerging economies. On average,
annual world growth is projected to be accelerate towards 3% compared with growth of just over 2%
in the 2000s (Chart 1). Emerging-world growth will contribute twice as much as the developed world
to global growth over this period.

By 2050, the emerging world will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed
world (Chart 2).

19 of the top 30 economies by GDP will be countries that we currently describe as ‘emerging’ (Table 3).

China and India will be the largest and third-largest economies in the world, respectively.

Substantial progress up the global league table will be made by a host of other emerging economies –
most notably, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt, Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia and Venezuela.

These projections combine prospects for per capita GDP and the demographic outlook. Income per
capita should grow in all the countries that we consider. But demographic patterns vary significantly
across the world and have a major influence on growth prospects.

The US and UK, with better demographic outlooks, are relatively successful at maintaining their positions.

But the small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the big losers. Switzerland and the
Netherlands slip down the grid significantly, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark
drop out of our Top 30 altogether.
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
This may have implications for the ability of these economies to influence the global policy agenda.
Already Europe has been forced to concede two seats on the IMF’s executive board in order to make
way for some emerging economies. This adds a whole new dimension to the current Eurozone crisis,
and provides a significant incentive to euro-area countries to work through their current difficulties
and remain a union.

Demographic change is even more dramatic outside of Europe. The working population will rise by
73% in Saudi Arabia and fall by 37% in Japan. That is reflected in these countries' differing fortunes
in our top 30 table (Chart 4).

By 2050, the seismic shift in the global economy will have only just begun. Despite a seven-fold
increase (Chart 5), income per capita in China will still be only 32% of that in the US and scope for
further growth will be substantial. This ‘base effect’ must be considered when comparing current
growth in the emerging world with that of the developed world.

Energy availability need not hinder this path of global development so long as there is major
investment in efficiency and low-carbon alternatives. Meeting food demand may prove more of a
challenge, but improvements in yield and diet could fill the gap. In the final section, we discuss our
preliminary thoughts on this topic.
1. Growth in the emerging markets will boost global growth
%
%
Contributions to global growth
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
2030s
2040s
Dev eloped Markets
Emerging markets
Globa l
Source: HSBC Calculations
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Visual Summary
2. EM will be bigger than DM by 2050
Constant 2000 USD, Tn
EM vs DM in 2050
Constant 2000 USD, Tn
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
2010
2050
Dev eloped Markets
Emerging Markets
Source: HSBC Calculations
3. The top 30 in 2050
Size of economy in
2050 (Bn, Constant
Rank change
between now
Income per capita
____ (Constant 2000 USD) _____
Population
Order in 2050
by size
2000 USD)
and 2050
2050
2010
(Mn)
1
China
24617
2
17372
2396
1417
2
US
22270
-1
55134
36354
404
3
India
8165
5
5060
790
1614
4
Japan
6429
-2
63244
39435
102
5
Germany
3714
-1
52683
25083
71
6
UK
3576
-1
49412
27646
72
7
Brazil
2960
2
13547
4711
219
8
Mexico
2810
5
21793
6217
129
9
France
2750
-3
40643
23881
68
10
Canada
2287
0
51485
26335
44
11
Italy
2194
-4
38445
18703
57
12
Turkey
2149
6
22063
5088
97
13
S. Korea
2056
-2
46657
16463
44
14
Spain
1954
-2
38111
15699
51
15
Russia
1878
2
16174
2934
116
16
Indonesia
1502
5
5215
1178
288
17
Australia
1480
-3
51523
26244
29
18
Argentina
1477
-2
29001
10517
51
19
Egypt
1165
16
8996
3002
130
20
Malaysia
1160
17
29247
5224
40
21
Saudi Arabia
1128
2
25845
9833
44
22
Thailand
856
7
11674
2744
73
23
Netherlands
798
-8
45839
26376
17
24
Poland
786
0
24547
6563
32
25
Iran
732
9
7547
2138
97
26
Colombia
725
13
11530
3052
63
27
Switzerland
711
-7
83559
38739
9
28
Hong Kong
657
-3
76153
35203
9
29
Venezuela
558
7
13268
5438
42
30
South Africa
529
-2
9308
3710
57
Source: HSBC Calculations
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4. The outlook for working population is vastly different across economies
Saudi
Egy pt
Is rael
Venezuela
Malay sia
India
Colombia
Argentina
Turkey
Ireland
Australia
Indonesia
South
US
Iran
Canada
Norway
Mex ico
UK
Brazil
Sw eden
Sw itzerland
France
Thailand
Belgium
Denmark
Netherland
Hong Kong
Finland
China
Spain
Austria
Singapore
Greece
Italy
Germany
Russia
S. Korea
Poland
Japan
-4 0
-15
10
35
60
% change in w orking population betw een 2010 and 2050
Source: UN projections, HSBC calculations
5. The rise in income per capita in the emerging world will dwarf that of the US in the coming years
%
%
Grow th in income per capita 2010 - 2050
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
Source: HSBC Calculations
4
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The World 2050, Teksty

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